By James Oliphant

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Mike Johnson’s hold on the speakership of the U.S. House of Representatives has been tenuous almost since the day he was elected.

The Louisiana Republican only ended up with the job in October 2023 after the unruly members of his House caucus deposed then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy and cast about for someone who could amass enough votes to replace him. He won after three other candidates fell short during a tumultuous three-week period that brought the House to a halt.

The soft-spoken Johnson, 52, had never served in the higher levels of House leadership before. His decision to move forward with a massive bipartisan spending bill in December to keep the government funded drew intense fire from hard-right members of his party – and most importantly, President-elect Donald Trump.

Trump told House Republicans to scrap the first bill on Wednesday and a second version Johnson negotiated on Thursday failed in a vote on the House floor when 38 Republicans rejected Trump’s demand to lift the federal government’s debt ceiling and the measure Johnson had spent a day negotiating.

That left Johnson and his allies scrambling to find another way to avoid a Christmas shutdown, something Republican leaders had hoped to prevent given that they take control of both the House and the Senate next month.

“With such a narrow majority, he has done good a job and survived longer than expected until this huge miscalculation on the (bill),” said Ron Bonjean, a longtime Republican consultant in Washington. “However, it’s difficult to imagine anyone else being successful in this position with an ungovernable conference and little room to navigate with such a divided House.”

When the next Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, Johnson must stand for re-election – and it won’t be easy. His initial majority will be just 219-215, narrower than its current 219-211.

Assuming no Democrat votes for Johnson, he will have almost no breathing room with which to work. Already two Republicans, Representatives Paul Gosar and Thomas Massie, have said they won’t back him. Another caucus hardliner, Marjorie Taylor Greene, on Thursday floated the idea of picking a new leader.

Johnson’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Thursday, while he huddled with allies to try to plot a course forward.

Whether others stick with Johnson will depend on whether he can somehow pull off a new spending bill that contains Republican priorities but omits Democratic ones. That is a formidable high-wire act, given that Democratic votes may be needed to pass the bill in the House and definitely will in the Senate, where Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority.

Thursday’s failed vote sharply increases the odds that parts of the federal government will begin to shut down on Saturday.

TIED TO TRUMP

Johnson had tried to dodge this scenario by supporting Trump at every turn during his presidential bid and becoming a fixture at his events. Most recently, he met with Trump at Saturday’s Army-Navy college football game even as the funding measure was being hashed out. 

But for Trump, loyalty has mostly been a one-way street. He will stand by his political allies when it serves his interest, but as McCarthy found out, he is willing to sacrifice them if necessary.

McCarthy engendered the wrath of the caucus’ conservatives by striking a budget deal with President Joe Biden in much the same manner that Johnson attempted to do with his funding plan. Both leaders discovered that satisfying both mainstream and hardline Republicans is a nearly impossible task. 

Following McCarthy’s history-making ouster, several Republicans, including hardline conservative Jim Jordan and more establishment-oriented choices Tom Emmer and Steve Scalise failed to attract enough support to win the speakership.

Johnson, a low-profile Christian conservative lawyer from northwest Louisiana who was far down the leadership roster, emerged as a compromise choice. 

Almost immediately, Johnson’s tenure was embattled. In April, he was forced to rely on Democratic votes to pass a sweeping aid package for Ukraine, a measure opposed by the hardliners in his caucus. Even then there was talk among them of replacing him.

Should Johnson somehow survive and serve another term as speaker, it likely will be only due to Trump’s support. And then from that point on, Johnson will owe the new president his political life.